Originally Posted by Tom Pamperin
I'm pretty confident of the distance, and curious about what kind of time it will take me. Sub-5:00 seems possible, but I don't really know.
Hi Tom, in order to predict your times over long distances, one way that I personally find very effective is to always have a clear picture of your current threshold pace and then practice enough aerobic sets to become efficient and consistent at paces below your threshold.
For instance, if your current threshold pace (or the avg pace your can hold for about 1500m) is 1:45/100m, you could spend enough time of your practice at paces say between 1:47 and 1:52, trying to pace yourself as evenly as possible (ie not starting faster and then slowing down). The more consistent you become at these paces, the easier becomes to predict your times over 10k and also the easier becomes for you to swim by feel
(ie not aided by Tempo Trainer if you use one) in the open water and the day of the race. And when your threshold pace improves by 1s/100m (it'll happen without trying), by practicing this way you can reasonably expect that you've become 1s/100m faster in every distance from 1500m and up.